تحلیل رفتار دشمن - خودی در صحنه نبرد با استفاده از مفهوم دوگانه تهدید – تحمل‌پذیری در غالب بازی دیفرانسیلی

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکترا، دانشگاه فردوسی، مشهد، ایران

2 دانشیار، دانشگاه فردوسی، مشهد، ایران

3 استاد، دانشگاه فردوسی، مشهد، ایران

چکیده

دوگانه تهدید - تحمل‌پذیری به‌عنوان یک مفهوم دو وجهیِ نوآورانه که بر تحلیل رفتار دشمن-خودی در صحنه نبرد تمرکز دارد، در این پژوهش معرفی شده است. قرارگرفتن مفهوم بدیع تحمل‌پذیری در کنار مفهوم تهدید، رویکرد ارزیابی تهدید را که پیش‌تر تنها متمرکز بر اهداف متخاصم و ویژگی‌های آن‌ها بود، به سمت خودی متمایل می‌کند. ویژگی‌های اهداف متخاصم که برخواسته از ماهیت و اقدامات آن هاست، در اختیار ما نیستند و لذا در بسیاری از موارد نمیتوان با تغییر در استراتژی‌های مورد استفاده در اختصاص منابع اندازه‌گیری خودی، تهدید را مدیریت کرد. علاوه بر این بسیاری از استراتژی‌هایی که بازیگران خودی برای مدیریت منابع سنسوری خود بکار می-گیرند را نمی‌توان با متغیر تهدید توجیه کرد. با شکل‌گیری مفهوم دوسویه تهدید-تحمل‌پذیری امکان تحلیل رفتار خودی-دشمن در صحنه نبرد به شکل پویا فراهم می‌آید که امکان مدیریت منابع سنسوری را بر پایه رفتار‌های تهدیدی اهداف متخاصم و مطلوبیت تحمل-پذیری برای خودی فراهم می‌آورد. یک بازی دیفرانسیلی با مجموع صفر برای مدل‌سازی برهم‌کنش‌های دو متغیر حالت که تهدید و تحمل‌پذیری هستند طراحی شده است. معادلات دینامیکی به دلیل سایشی بودن رفتارهای متقابل خودی و دشمن با استفاده از روابط لانچستر، پیاده‌سازی شده‌اند. مزیت اصلی روش پیشنهادی این است که می‌تواند به بهینه‌سازی استراتژی‌ها و اقدامات بازیگران صحنه نبرد در طول دوره بازی بر اساس معادلات دینامیکی تهدید-تحمل‌پذیری کمک کند. همان‌طور که بازی پیشرفت می‌کند، هر بازیگر با ارزیابی وضعیت بازی، سعی می‌کند منابع خود را برای تأثیرگذاری بر نتیجه نهایی بازی، برنامه‌ریزی کند.این برنامه‌ریزی با اختصاص میزان منابع در دسترس به هریک از استراتژی‌های تهاجمی، دفاعی و یا مانوری انجام می‌شود. بازآرایی معادلات لانچستر به گونه‌ای انجام شده است که سازگاری مناسبی با تاکتیک‌های سه‌گانه قابل انتخاب توسط بازیگران دارد. در انتها از یک سناریوی ردیابی ساده استفاده شده است تا نشان‌داده شود چگونه دینامیک تهدید و تحمل‌پذیری می‌تواند به‌عنوان ابزاری برای تخصیص بهینه منابع اندازه‌گیری مورد استفاده قرار گیرد. نتایج شبیه‌سازی در این سناریو نشان می‌دهد که افزودن مفهوم تحمل‌پذیری چگونه می‌تواند شاخص‌های رهگیری را ارتقاء بخشد. شاخص‌های استانداردی نظیر خطای سرعت و خطای موقعیت بطرز قابل توجهی بهبود یافته اند.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Developing a Threat-Tolerability Bilateral Concept within a Differential Game for the Analysis of the Insider/Adversary Behavior in Operational environment

نویسندگان [English]

  • saeed kamelian 1
  • Ali Karimpour 2
  • Naser Pariz 3
1 PhD student, Ferdowsi University, Mashhad, Iran
2 Associate Professor, Ferdowsi University, Mashhad, Iran
3 Professor, Ferdowsi University, Mashhad, Iran
چکیده [English]

Threat-tolerability as an innovative bilateral concept that focuses on the analysis of insider/adversary behavior is proposed. A zero sum differential game is designed to model the interaction between the two introduced state variables, threat and tolerability. A Lanchester-type equations is used to present the dynamics of threat-tolerability due to contradictory behavior of insider and adversary. The main advantage of the proposed method is that it could help to optimize the two side player’s strategies and actions during the game period based on threat-tolerability dynamic. As the game progresses each player observes game position, i.e., the threat level for targets and tolerability level for insider and tries to schedule its resources to influence final game’ profits. Player could resolve offensive, defensive and maneuvering share on total available resources. Deciding on extent resources used for each strategy can be considered as control input for each player to change game’s profits. A simple tracking scenario is used to demonstrate how threat and tolerability dynamics could be used as a tool for optimal resource assignment.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Differential game
  • Lanchester equation
  • Resource assignment
  • Threat evaluation
  • Tolerability

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دوره 11، شماره 2 - شماره پیاپی 42
شماره پیاپی 42، فصلنامه تابستان
تیر 1402
صفحه 15-29
  • تاریخ دریافت: 16 آذر 1400
  • تاریخ بازنگری: 01 دی 1401
  • تاریخ پذیرش: 27 اردیبهشت 1402
  • تاریخ انتشار: 01 تیر 1402