ارزیابی تهدید اهداف با استفاده از شبکه های فازی و احتمالاتی توام مبتنی بر قواعد

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد

2 دانشیار، گروه مهندسی برق، دانشکده مهندسی، دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد

چکیده

یکی از مهم‌ترین ارکان یک سامانه تلفیق داده، مسئله ارزیابی تهدید اهداف است. در این مقاله برای پیاده‌سازی یک شبکه کامل ارزیابی تهدید از دو الگوی ترسیمی نقشه شناختی فازی و شبکه بیزین استفاده شده است. ساختار این شبکه تعداد زیاد و متنوعی از متغیرهای ارزیابی تهدید را شامل شده و به‌طور مناسبی با یکدیگر مرتبط می‌سازد. با توجه به وجود عدم­قطعیت در تمامی مسائل ارزیابی تهدید، انواع عدم قطعیت و روش‌های برخورد با آن در این مقاله موردتوجه قرار می‌گیرد. همچنین یک بررسی جامع بر روی انواع روش‌های لحاظ کردن هر دو نوع عدم قطعیت فازی و احتمالاتی انجام شده است و برای این موضوع روشی جدید ارائه می‌گردد. در این روش از دو شبکه فازی و بیزین مجزا برای لحاظ کردن عدم قطعیت‌ها استفاده شده که گام‌به‌گام روش پیشنهادی به‌طور کامل تشریح می‌گردد. همچنین در این مقاله چالش‌های بزرگ مسئله ارزیابی تهدید مطرح شده و نشان داده می‌شود که روش پیشنهادی قابلیت حل این مسائل را دارد. برای نشان دادن کارآمدی روش پیشنهادی مجموعه‌ای از معیارهای اعتبارسنجی کیفی و کمی در این مقاله ارائه شده است. یک رفتار حرکتی اهداف هوایی شبیه‌سازی شده و نتایج روش پیشنهادی به‌طور کیفی و کمی با دو روش نقشه شناختی فازی و شبکه بیزین مقایسه می­شود. این نتایج بیانگر آن هستند که روش پیشنهادی ازلحاظ جذر میانگین مربعات خطا، درجه حساسیت کلی و جزئی و درجه تفکیک‌پذیری بهتر از دو روش دیگر عمل می‌کند. همچنین کارآمدی ساختار و روش پیشنهادشده مورد تأیید متخصصین حوزه مدیریت نبرد قرار گرفته است.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Target Threat Assessment using Rule-Based Joint Fuzzy and Probabilistic Networks

نویسندگان [English]

  • Mohsen Yadeghari 1
  • Seyyed Ali Reza Seyedin 2
1
2
چکیده [English]

Threat assessment is one of the most important pillars of data fusion systems. In this paper, we use two graphical models: fuzzy cognitive map and bayesian network to implement a complete threat assessment network. The structure of this network includes numerous variables of threat assessment and relates them well to each other. Given the uncertainty in all threat assessment issues, various types of uncertainty and how to deal with them are considered in this article. A comprehensive review has also been carried out on a variety of methods for incorporating both types of fuzzy and probabilistic uncertainties and a new approach is proposed. In this method, two separated fuzzy and bayesian networks are used to consider uncertainties. The approach of the proposed method is fully described, step-by-step. Furthermore, this paper addresses the major challenges of the threat assessment problem and shows that the proposed method is capable of solving these issues. To illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed method, a set of qualitative and         quantitative validation criteria is presented. As a test a scenario for air targets is simulated and the results of the proposed method are qualitatively and quantitatively compared with fuzzy cognitive map and    bayesian network methods. These results indicate that the proposed method works better than other      methods regarding root mean square error, total and trivial sensitivity degree and seperation degree. Moreover, the effectiveness of the proposed structure and method has been confirmed by experts in the field of battle management.
 

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Threat assessment
  • Fuzzy Cognitive Map
  • Bayesian Network
  • Rules
  • Fuzzy and Probabilistic uncertainty
  • Validation criteria
 
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