ارزیابی تهدید اهداف با استفاده از شبکه های فازی و احتمالاتی توام مبتنی بر قواعد

نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد

2 دانشیار، گروه مهندسی برق، دانشکده مهندسی، دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد

چکیده

یکی از مهم‌ترین ارکان یک سامانه تلفیق داده، مسئله ارزیابی تهدید اهداف است. در این مقاله برای پیاده‌سازی یک شبکه کامل ارزیابی تهدید از دو الگوی ترسیمی نقشه شناختی فازی و شبکه بیزین استفاده شده است. ساختار این شبکه تعداد زیاد و متنوعی از متغیرهای ارزیابی تهدید را شامل شده و به‌طور مناسبی با یکدیگر مرتبط می‌سازد. با توجه به وجود عدم­قطعیت در تمامی مسائل ارزیابی تهدید، انواع عدم قطعیت و روش‌های برخورد با آن در این مقاله موردتوجه قرار می‌گیرد. همچنین یک بررسی جامع بر روی انواع روش‌های لحاظ کردن هر دو نوع عدم قطعیت فازی و احتمالاتی انجام شده است و برای این موضوع روشی جدید ارائه می‌گردد. در این روش از دو شبکه فازی و بیزین مجزا برای لحاظ کردن عدم قطعیت‌ها استفاده شده که گام‌به‌گام روش پیشنهادی به‌طور کامل تشریح می‌گردد. همچنین در این مقاله چالش‌های بزرگ مسئله ارزیابی تهدید مطرح شده و نشان داده می‌شود که روش پیشنهادی قابلیت حل این مسائل را دارد. برای نشان دادن کارآمدی روش پیشنهادی مجموعه‌ای از معیارهای اعتبارسنجی کیفی و کمی در این مقاله ارائه شده است. یک رفتار حرکتی اهداف هوایی شبیه‌سازی شده و نتایج روش پیشنهادی به‌طور کیفی و کمی با دو روش نقشه شناختی فازی و شبکه بیزین مقایسه می­شود. این نتایج بیانگر آن هستند که روش پیشنهادی ازلحاظ جذر میانگین مربعات خطا، درجه حساسیت کلی و جزئی و درجه تفکیک‌پذیری بهتر از دو روش دیگر عمل می‌کند. همچنین کارآمدی ساختار و روش پیشنهادشده مورد تأیید متخصصین حوزه مدیریت نبرد قرار گرفته است.

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